Your patience will be rewarded if you can wait as long as a year AFP/Getty ImagesHalliburton has made a $35 billion bid for Baker Hughes, which will help the oilfield-services company ramp up big time in 2016 and 2017 as oil prices eventually rise.The crash in crude oil prices has led to big shifts in the global economy. As just one example of how widespread the impact is, a recent report from Ruth Mantell highlights the problems falling oil is creating for housing prices in areas like Texas and North Dakota, which are closely linked to the energy industry. It’s logical that the price of a barrel of oil can affect property values in Williston, N.D., but it’s still remarkable to consider — and illustrative of how much oil can move markets of all kinds. So given the power of crude prices, it’s crucial to assess what’s next for oil as a way to determine what’s next for your portfolio. And by my assessment, the outlook is pretty simple: More pain for oil in 2015, but plenty of profits in 2016 for those who can be patient. Supply glut persists Crude oil recently touched its lowest level in almost six years, tumbling from highs above $100 a barrel last year to under $50 a barrel this week. There are a host of reasons for the downward pressure on oil, but don’t believe the spin that blames those pesky old “speculators” for oil’s decline. The biggest reason is simple supply-and-demand economics. Just after Thanksgiving, OPEC vowed it would keep its production target unchanged. This is in large part because member nations like Iran and Venezuela are heavily reliant on oil simply to operate their government. That means, rather absurdly, that the more oil prices fall … the more oil those nations pump out to maintain revenue. And just for a bit more pain, throw in the fact that Big Oil still needs to keep operating even if margins are thin or non-existent — as evidenced by the recent announcement that ConocoPhillips COP, +2.81% just struck oil at an expensive North Sea project off the coast of Norway. When oil-rich nations are pumping more crude to make up for weak pricing, and Big Oil continues to operate at break-even or perhaps even a loss in certain expensive-to-access oil fields, it’s not a good sign supply and production are going to roll back significantly anytime soon. via