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Stock market bulls get their biggest warning yet

For the past year, the U.S. stock market has had one of the strongest rallies in a long time. It has rallied 20% since Donald Trump was elected, and it took most of the market by surprise.

However, those who followed our analysis a year ago know we were expecting the market to bottom just before the election, and begin a rally to the 2,537-2,611 region on the S&P 500 SPX, +0.10% Currently, we reside at the upper end of that target region.

But our expectations for this rally began much earlier than the election. My initial expectation in 2015 was that all 5 waves off the February lows would potentially complete in the 2,611-point region on the SPX. But when the market provided us only with a high-level pullback in August, it suggested that the wave (3) off the February lows was extending up toward the upper end of our target zone. via